Betting the Red Sox
I can already here the Red Sox fans talking about the Curse of the Bambino again this year when the Yankees swoop in and take another AL East title away from Bean Town. Last season was a major disappointment for Boston fans as the curse was really acting up when the Red Sox fell to third place in the American League East finishing one game behind the Toronto Blue Jays and 11 back from New York. Most likely, the Red Sox will regain their traditional second place finish in the AL East as Toronto figures to take a major hit with the loss of Ted Lilly from their starting rotation.
The Red Sox do have the pitching to win the division with a rotation which includes Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, and the highly-touted Matsuzaka from Japan. I don’t care how good people say this guy is. He will be facing some of the biggest bats in baseball in the American League this season. It will take him some time to adjust to the power in the American game. Ultimately, I see a hole in Boston’s seemingly flawless staff. Papelbon was a great closer for Boston last season, and I expect that he will eventually go back to that roll or this team could suffer. I don’t see him having near the success as a starter. And this will be a wrinkle that the Red Sox will have to work out.
As far as the offense goes, it’s Manny and Big Papi. Last season, Manny’s numbers took a dip as he played 22 less games than he did in 2005, and, consequently, so did Boston’s record. Ortiz once again brought his big bat to the plate in 2006. But this is a team which can’t afford to lose either of these guys for any substantial amount of time as they are the run producers. One through nine, it appears that the Yankees will once again have a more consistent lineup. Boston’s attempt to fix this is J.D. Drew. He is an often injured player whose passion has been questioned. I don’t think this guy will even have a chance in baseball-crazy Boston. The Boston fans could make the Yankee fans look like little girls with their A-Rod ridicules when they jump on Drew this season.
In 2006, the Red Sox were big money makers in interleague play going 16-2 against the National League. I expect this trend to continue as Boston’s pitching staff should have its way with most weaker hitting NL teams. Much like the Yankees, the Red Sox get quite a bit of betting action and they are often overvalued by the books, even on the road. Last season, the Red Sox were just 38-43 away from Fenway. We’ll continue to look for spots to bet against the Red Sox when they are showing little value as road favorites.
Jimmy Boyd is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
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